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Officials in Seoul are hopeful that Tuesday's meeting between U.S. chief nuclear envoy Christopher Hill and his North Korean counterpart Kim Kye Gwan would reach a compromise to move forward the process of dismantling the North's nuclear drive, which has been deadlocked over a delay in the declaration of the North's nuclear programs.
But skepticism still lingers about significant progress at the talks in Singapore, given that the United States and North Korea have a long history of mutual distrust.
Analysts and officials here say the face-to-face meeting would be a "turning point" for North Korea to walk out or stay in the nuclear negotiation, which has been stalled since Pyongyang's failure to meet an end-of-2007 deadline to give a complete accounting of its nuclear programs as called for in a major six-nation nuclear deal reached in February, 2007.
According to diplomatic sources here, the United States and North Korea have neared the end of a deal and they are now "fine-tuning" the wording of a compromise declaration to press forward on the next phase of the denuclearization process.
"This week's meeting would be focused on what the North will say about the U.S. suspicions about the UEP (uranium enrichment program) and nuclear connection with Syria," a diplomat source said.
The North completed the first phase of disarmament in July by shutting down and sealing its plutonium-producing reactor at the country's main nuclear complex in return for energy aid. But it has failed to finish the second phase of the disarmament deal, which called for a declaration of all its nuclear programs by the end of last year, delaying the third and final phase of dismantling of the atomic weapons programs.
The North says it submitted a nuclear list in November, but the United States is calling for Pyongyang to clarify the suspicions that it secretly worked to produce weapons-grade uranium and transferred nuclear technology and materials to Syria. Pyongyang has flatly denied the allegations.
After behind-the-scenes negotiations, Pyongyang and Washington have agreed to separate the two issues of contention from the main declaration of the plutonium-powered nuclear program, which will make it earlier for North Korea to submit the nuclear list, according to the diplomatic sources.
Under the deal, the North would declare plutonium-producing facilities in an open document, while it specifies its position in a separate, secret document concerning the suspicions about the uranium-based program and nuclear cooperation with Syria.
The idea involves essentially agreeing to disagree, with each side stating its own views in the confidential document, in which the United States expresses its own concerns about the possible uranium program and transfer of nuclear technology, while North Korea would state its own denials in the secret document.
At stake is the North's wording about the U.S. concerns about the uranium program and the Syria connection, the sources said. The United States has urged the North to use the word "admit" or "acknowledge" in describing its reaction to the U.S. suspicions, whereas Pyongyang prefers to use "understand" or a more vague expression to avoid possible future pressure, they said.
The Singapore talks come after U.S. warnings that time and patience are running out over stalled nuclear talks with Pyongyang, calling for a quick move to resolve the impasse. The U.S. State Department has played down the meeting, saying it does not expect Hill will "be coming home with a declaration in his briefcase."
But South Korean officials expressed hope because U.S. officials had said Hill would not meet his North Korean counterparts unless the issue of the declaration of the North's nuclear program was resolved.
The result of the this week's meeting is likely to determine the tone of comments by the leaders of the United States and South Korea in their summit slated for next week. South Korea's new conservative President Lee Myung-bak is scheduled to hold a summit meeting on April 18 with U.S. President George W. Bush at Camp David, where they will coordinate strategies for dealing with North Korea.
Lee will be the first South Korean leader to be invited to Camp David, a presidential retreat in Maryland, reflecting warming bilateral ties following Lee's inauguration last February. Lee has vowed to place top priority on bolstering the alliance with the United States in dealing with North Korea, and to tie economic aid to Pyongyang's efforts to resolve its nuclear arms programs.
If the Singapore talks produce a significant outcome, the two leaders would promise to keep the dialogue momentum to end the North's nuclear standoff before Bush leaves office at the beginning of 2009. If not, however, the North would face tougher sanctions or would simply be ignored, both of which would further worsen its economic troubles, officials said.
They say that August would be the deadline for the North to agree to a timetable for the final phase of dismantling its atomic weapons programs, given the political schedule in the United States.
"For the timetable, the declaration (of the North's nuclear facilities) must be wrapped up and six-nation talks to discuss the next steps should be resumed within this month," a Foreign Ministry official said. "The Singapore meeting would be crucial to the fate of the nuclear disarmament process," he said.
