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Under the agreement reached on Feb. 13 last year at the six-nation nuclear talks, North Korea agreed to disable its existing nuclear facilities in exchange for 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent energy aid.
The "Feb. 13 accord" also called for the United States to remove North Korea from its list of terrorist-sponsoring countries and end its restrictions against the communist country under the Trading with the Enemy Act.
Fulfilling its part of the accord, North Korea completed the first phase of the disarmament in July by shutting down and sealing its plutonium-producing reactor at the country's main nuclear complex in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang.
In November, the North also began disabling the reactor, fuel reprocessing plants and a fuel fabrication plant under the supervision of U.S. inspectors. Responding to Pyongyang's move, its negotiating partners have begun providing fuel aid to the energy-starved North.
Optimism gathered further momentum in October when North Korea agreed to provide a full account of its nuclear programs by the end of last year, complying with the second phase of the disarmament deal, while reaffirming its plan to disable its key nuclear facilities.
It should have finished the process and declared all of its nuclear programs by Dec. 31, 2007, to complete the second phase. The third and final phase is the dismantling of its nuclear programs. A year after the conclusion of the Feb. 13 accord, however, optimism was sharply waning as North Korea failed to meet the year-end deadline to reveal all the details of its nuclear activity.
The United States is increasingly running out of patience with hawkish officials trying to take advantage of the hiccup to derail the multilateral talks. Irritated by Pyongyang's failure to meet the deadline, U.S. hard-liners appear to be seeking a stronger policy against the North.
Reflecting mounting doubts about the denuclearization process, Washington's chief nuclear envoy, Christopher Hill, described the six-nation nuclear talks as being at a "critical, challenging point."
South Korea's top nuclear negotiator, Chun Yung-woo, also acknowledged the disarmament process is facing a serious challenge largely due to Pyongyang's denial that it has a uranium enrichment program.
"The issue of (nuclear) declaration is a very difficult question in its essence," Chun said at a news conference on Wednesday, marking the first anniversary of the Feb. 13 deal. "I believe the responsibility to show evidence on UEP (uranium enrichment program) is on North Korea," he said. It will take more time and effort to end the nuclear standoff because this requires North Korea to reverse its claim and make several political decisions, Chun said.
But the nuclear envoy defended the Feb. 13 accord as a measure that has prevented the North from producing additional nuclear materials. "I would say that it is now almost impossible for North Korea to produce additional plutonium for the time being," Chun said.
The North has completed eight out of eleven measures for disabling nuclear facilities in Yongbyon and the rest will be finished after the nuclear fuel rods are all removed, he said.
"It would take more than one year for North Korea to resume the operation of the nuclear facilities after it completes disabling them even though it spends more efforts and resources," the nuclear envoy said.
Asked when the United States would take North Korea off the terrorism blacklist, Chun said Washington remains ready to take the step only if Pyongyang provides a declaration of its nuclear programs. North Korea has slowed down the disarmament work, blaming negotiating partners for failing to fulfill their side of the accord, such as the removal from the U.S. blacklist and delivery of energy aid.
A diplomatic source said North Korea is complaining that only 20 percent of energy aid has arrived, whereas it has implemented some 70 percent of the denuclearization process. Pyongyang's dialogue partners have so far provided 196,000 tons of heavy oil, part of the Feb. 13 deal that calls for 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil for the North.
South Korea shipped 50,000 tons of heavy oil in July-August, China gave 50,000 tons in September and the United States provided 46,000 tons in October-November, while Russia delivered 50,000 tons in January, according to Seoul's Foreign Ministry.
In addition, South Korea provided 5,010 tons of steel products in December to help renovate the North's power plants, as Pyongyang has requested half of the energy aid in the form of equipment needed to repair its decrepit power plants, such as steel.
Kim Sung-han, a Korea University professor, said a breakthrough is unlikely in the near future because of busy domestic schedules of the negotiating partners. China, the host of the six-party talks, could not focus its diplomatic efforts to break the nuclear impasse due to its Olympic Games this summer. In South Korea, a new conservative administration is to be inaugurated, ending a decade of rule by liberals who pushed for unconditional reconciliation with North Korea.
The Bush administration is keen to make progress in efforts to denuclearize the North to offset its troubles in the Middle East, but time is running out for the U.S. president, who has just one more year left in office.
Paik Hak-soon, a North Korea specialist at Seoul's private Sejong Institute, said a lack of mutual confidence between Pyongyang and Washington is the biggest obstacle to ending the nuclear standoff.
"The United States and North Korea are urged to move 'simultaneously' to resolve the nuclear issue, rather than calling for first moves by the other side," he said.
