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Q: Taiwan will hold its presidential election and referendum on application for U.N. membership under the name of Taiwan. How does Japan look at this? Will China use force against Taiwan?
Masuda: It is difficult to predict the future. Regarding the Taiwan Strait issue, the position of the Japanese government is that we hope all parties involved will resort to peaceful means to resolve the problem. Despite a series of incidents and moves recently, we do not think that China will use military force in the immediate future.
Q: Suppose very unfortunate things should happen, for example economic sanctions or small-scale military conflict, would that be considered a "situation in areas surrounding Japan" to which Japan would respond?
Masuda: Our official answer to this question is that a "situation in areas surrounding Japan" is defined as one that may have serious impact on Japan's peace and security. Suppose the situation that you mentioned does take place, and its development is in line with the above definition, then that will be "a situation in areas surrounding Japan"… if that kind of incident does take place, we will not immediately consider it as such a situation or not such a situation.
Q: Please accept my congratulations on the success of the interception test of SM3 Navy Theater Missile Defense. Is the development of this system directed at North Korea's ballistic missile only, or does it also cover other ballistic missiles in the region, including those of China?
Masuda: Japan's development of the defense capability against ballistic missiles is not directed at any specific country. Its objective is to deal with the scenario of the further spread of ballistic missiles and to give Japan the corresponding defense capability. The program has been under way for almost 10 years. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force is now equipped with Patriot III Interceptors, and the Aegis ships of the Maritime Self-Defense Force have also started to have the defense capability against ballistic missiles. Neither of them is aimed at any specific country.
Q: Exporting arms is an activity of a "normal nation." After the Defense Agency was upgraded to the Defense Ministry, is it reconsidering the possibility of exporting arms to other countries? About half a year ago, Taiwan's vice defense minister expressed an interest in acquiring weapon systems from Japan during an interview with me.
Masuda: There is no plan on the part of Japan to push forward this policy. Within Japan, there are all types of considerations on this issue, including not exporting any arms, maintaining the status quo, and there are factions that either support exports of arms or object to the sales of arms. As a result, there is no way to conclude that Japan will never export arms or Japan will immediately lift arms export restrictions. Realistically, the ultimate spirit of our three principles of arms exports is to discourage an arms race or military disputes.
Q: China's military transparency is an issue often brought up by the Japanese Defense Ministry. How does the ministry expect China to react to this?
Masuda: Japan's national defense spending is publicized to the whole world every year. If China can do the same thing and reveal details of its spending, Japan will be satisfied. China has published its National Defense White Paper, but it has to be admitted that the amount of information contained in it is much smaller compared with our National Defense White Paper. Meanwhile, China also needs to give a more explicit explanation of the objectives of its defense build-up and development of military power.
Q: My understanding is that China has been building up its navy and air force at a very fast pace. Does Japan feel threatened or concerned?
Masuda: We can put it aside whether China's military build-up is a threat or concern to Japan. What is important to us is the purpose of such build-up. As you just mentioned, China has been building up its military power at very fast pace, and if the purpose of such actions is not clear, we will naturally feel concerned.
Q: China's explanation is that it is aimed at containing the pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Do you think this explanation is convincing?
Masuda: From what we know about the pace and contents of China's military build-up, I cannot help saying it is questionable. In my personal view, and I hope this will not offend China, with such a pace of build-up, I wonder if they have a national strategy or national defense strategy in a real sense, or if they are only satisfying what the different factions within the People's Liberation Army want.
To put it into more extreme terms, is it because of competition among different factions within the PLA? Under the circumstances where the overall purpose and strategies of military build-up are not yet clear, I have an impression that the PLA's different factions are just striving to get better equipment for their own interest. This is only my personal impression, and of course I hope this is not the case.
Q: Japan's military build-up seems to be slow. For instance, the program to upgrade the F-15J -- even with the budget doubled, it will involve no more than 30 F-15J fighters. In contrast, China is now upgrading 70 SUKHOI fighters.
Masuda: This is mainly because of a tight budget. Also, it was not because we compared with China's SUKHOI program that we have decided to upgrade just 30 F-15Js. The decision was made on the foundation of the existing equipment in service. Just as Defense Minister Ishiba mentioned earlier, China has a much broader territory with a much longer land border with other countries so that it is not unimaginable that China's air force capability and combat aircraft fleet could be double or more that of Japan when it defends itself from invasion into its air space.
Q: You mentioned that if an Asian NATO were established in the future, Japan would welcome China joining it. But as you are aware, NATO was established on the basis of shared democratic values among the member countries.
Masuda: Talking about shared values, from our perspective, once you bring up the issues of freedom and democracy it will be hard for China to join such an organization. But China is a country with huge influence in this region, and if China is excluded in such a multi-party organization, it will be very detrimental to regional security and order. It will be perceived as an anti-China organization, which will in return fuel regional tension.
Personally, I think we should look for the shared values that China also can share, and should make effort to find ways to deal with the issue. For instance, maintaining regional security and order can be a shared value. China indeed hopes to reinforce its navy and to build aircraft carriers so as to protect its lifelines on the sea, while Japan also has such lifelines on the sea. If the two countries share the same lifelines in the same region, we can consider undertaking joint protection. This can be a long-term prospect that the two sides can discuss in the future.
Q: Could Russia be accepted into such an Asian NATO?
Masuda: We can accept China based on shared values, and of course Russia can be accepted for the same reason.
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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto Canada.)
