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Japan cool-headed toward Hu's warm smiles

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TOKYO, Japan — Chinese President Hu Jintao's five-day visit to Japan, which ended Saturday, could be the beginning of a more future-oriented approach in Sino-Japanese relations. Despite the friendly atmosphere and promises of closer cooperation, however, the visit brought few substantial achievements, and most Japanese analysts are keeping their expectations “realistic.”

Hu made special stops at two temples in southwest Japan, Horyuji and Toshodaiji temples in Nara prefecture, both of which have historical ties to China. Before flying back to China from Osaka, Hu told reporters that his visit had been “harmonious and successful.”

Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who accompanied Hu to Japan, described the visit as a complete success in a statement posted on a Foreign Ministry Web site Sunday.

Even though key issues were not resolved, such as food-poisoning incidents involving Chinese-made frozen dumplings and gas exploration in the East China Sea, the statement issued Wednesday by Hu and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda showed some progress in bilateral relations.

In the joint statement, China described Japan as a "peaceful state" that has contributed "to the world's peace and stability" over the past 60 years, as well as playing a valuable role at the United Nations.

Moreover, it seems historical issues will be less prominent in relations between the two traditional rivals. The statement said that both countries would “look straight at history and head for the future."

This is a major advance compared to the 1998 Japan-China Joint Declaration issued when Hu's predecessor, former President Jiang Zemin, visited Japan. Jiang inserted several expressions in the declaration demanding an apology from Japan and expressions of regret over its wartime transgressions in China.

“Although China wanted a friendly stance from Japan to avoid international criticism over its military suppression of protests in Tibet, such a simple expression regarding the historical issue shows that Chinese leaders, unlike Jiang Zemin, have come to understand that sticking to the past makes people blind to the future," said Tomohide Murai, professor of international relations and director of the library at the National Defense Academy in Japan.

"Hu's stance against this attitude to Japan would be one reason Japan supports his administration," Murai said.

Seiichiro Takagi, professor at the School of International Politics, Economics and Business at the Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, agreed that the summit talks were valuable.

“(Sino-Japanese) relations, worsened under the Koizumi administration from 2001 to 2006, have been normalized through the past three summit talks by Abe's visit to China in 2006, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Japan in April last year and Fukuda's visit to China in December," Takagi pointed out.

"Even though there were few diplomatic breakthroughs, the joint statement shows some small progress which can be recognized as a considerable improvement compared to Abe's visit to China."

Takagi explained that remarks regarding Japan's role at the United Nations also represented major progress. But, he pointed out, they are still totally different from remarks made to India, as China supports India’s bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.

Meanwhile, Fukuda's weak-kneed response to Hu was criticized by some experts.

"While Western countries are sensitive against China's abuse of human rights, Fukuda's outstanding response, playing a role to protect China from international pressure, has to be judged as a failed exam from any point of view," said Yasuo Ohara, an expert on religious culture at Kokugakuin University in Tokyo.

Ohara said that Fukuda's remarks on Tibet's uprising and the food-poisoning incident were too weak.

"If Fukuda expresses his intention to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing this coming August, his approval rate will fall, as conservative lawmakers within Fukuda's Liberal Democratic Party were dissatisfied with his attitude against Hu," Ohara said.

It will be a surprise if warmer reciprocal relations based on shared economic benefits can spread to the political field and such bitter disputes as the maritime gas deposits and Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council.

"China, which wants to be a leader in Asia, will never accept Japan as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council because it would be a disadvantage for Beijing," Murai said.

Regarding the gas deposits, Murai predicts that both countries may put aside the serious issue of national sovereignty and announce an agreement on operational aspects of developing the gas fields ahead of the annual summit of the Group of Eight, which will take place in July in Toyako, Hokkaido, Japan.

Chinese officials have suggested that Beijing and Tokyo should return to the peaceful 2,000-year history that preceded their stormy relations of the 20th century. However, it is clear that the “good China-Japan relations" the Chinese are referring to implies a hierarchical relationship with Japan in a subordinate position to China, according to the professor.

"If Japan tries to establish a fifty-fifty relationship with China, conflicts will surely occur sooner or later. So Japan should prepare for such a situation in advance, on the grounds that both countries are now trying to build a new relationship that has never existed before," Murai said.



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