Font size: 
The question now is what will be the relationship between the country’s two top leaders? Many analysts conclude that Medvedev will adhere faithfully to Putin’s policies. This conclusion could turn out to be only half right, however.
Undoubtedly, at least in the first round -- perhaps his first two years as president -- Medvedev will not deviate from Putin’s policies. This is always true for a new political star that needs to solidify his power. After all, Putin has wielded power for eight years since he succeeded his predecessor Boris Yeltsin, who governed Russia from 1990. Largely because of its painful transformation after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia as the legal successor of the communist empire has experienced a hard time both politically and economically.
Putin proved successful at revitalizing Russia in many aspects. He determinedly carried out measures to reconstruct Russia’s economy and rebuild the nation’s power: returning the oil industry to state control by seizing it from private ownership; developing Russia’s military; putting down the ethnic conflict in Chechnya. Putin also succeeded at winning the confidence of Western countries, which his predecessor failed to do, especially in terms of getting loans from the International Monetary Fund.
Putin’s policies yielded positive results for his people. Within a few years he made Russia the seventh largest economy in the world, with 7 percent annual growth. Russia repaid its debts while accumulating big deposits of gold and foreign currency.
The Putin presidency left a rich political legacy to Russia, which largely contributed to the Russian people’s respect for this strong man. He of course established a strong political fortress within which he wielded tremendous power. At the same time he put his personal stamp on Russian politics, and continues to do so.
This was abundantly evident in the leadership change that Putin engineered. He chose his own heir under an arrangement that assured him the prime minister’s post. What’s more he was made chief of his party, the United Russia Party, instead of the newly elected president.
There is therefore little doubt that Medvedev will make no immediate attempt to change Putin’s policies. He will continue down the popular track for the time being. However, this does not mean he will make Putin’s policies everlasting.
Russian history shows that strong leaders have always proved fashionable and forceful; therefore it is too early to conclude that Medvedev will remain a student or disciple of Putin.
Once the new president’s power is solidified, once he has gathered his own loyalists and when present policies fail to generate new advantages, the new man will start to make changes. This logic might be subject to change when new challenges arise, perhaps bringing problems as well as opportunities. Any of the following factors might be the catalyst for change.
First, Russia’s future relationship with the United States and NATO countries is unpredictable. Putin was tough in making the United States and NATO consider Russia’s concerns, and this has largely stabilized the Russia-U.S. relationship. But who can say this stable relationship will last if most of the East European countries, especially those that border Russia, seek NATO membership? There will be two choices -- confrontation or cooperation. It is not clear what Medvedev would do.
Secondly, geopolitical imbalances may call for new Russian policies. The development of countries like China, Japan and South Korea may cause anxiety to Russia -- historically an aggressive country -- over its own security or loss of international status. At the same time, the balance of power in Europe may also motivate Russia to change its strategy. Will Medvedev woo or challenge those European countries that were shaped by Russian influence for centuries, especially during the Cold War?
Thirdly, there are global issues like North Korea’s nuclear weapons, Iran’s nuclear issues, competition in space, democracy and human rights, Russia’s membership in the World Trade Organization, and especially competition for energy resources. Russia has used its growing control of European energy supplies to influence European countries. However, experts warn that Russia’s natural gas deposits may be at risk of running out, making energy a less useful diplomatic lever for Russia in the future.
In addition, Russian politics are dominated by the conflicting vested interests of different groups and individuals. Trivial issues may trigger a struggle between different interest groups and financial sectors, thereby creating political divisions. On top of the international concerns, domestic confrontation could lead to political power struggles, which just might find the two top figures in competing camps.
Therefore, it might be too early to predict that Russia’s president and prime minister will be everlasting comrades.
--
(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a Ph.D. candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. His research interests focus on conflict management and identity construction. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
