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The east appears to be a success story of the government's strategy of clearing out the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, restoring normalcy and unleashing the forces of development that will improve the lives of the people. The security situation in the province has improved in the past several months. The strengthened presence of security forces after the declaration of elections has also contributed to the lessening of incidents of violence.
The improving security conditions also open the possibility of doing even more development work. The remainder of the tsunami reconstruction work, for which there was a massive outpouring of international generosity, is taking place at a faster pace, mostly by non-governmental organizations. In these circumstances, the government is likely confident that provincial elections on May 10 will yield victory to the government and to its ally, the Tamileela Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal.
One of the most controversial features of the forthcoming elections is that the TMVP, the breakaway eastern faction of the LTTE that has joined up with the government, continues to retain its weapons while contesting these elections. This means that, by definition, the elections are seriously flawed at the outset, and cannot be considered to be either free or fair. The basic requirement for a free and fair election is that all the contesting parties are unarmed and not in a position to intimidate their political rivals or the voters, who will be fearful to cross the path of the armed party.
On the other hand, it is widely accepted that so long as the LTTE is armed, it will seek to destroy any serious Tamil political rival, which therefore needs to keep its arms if only for self defense.
Reports from the east, particularly from the Tamil-dominated parts of the Batticaloa and Ampara districts, indicate that the TMVP has been able to subject its political opponents, including the Muslim-dominated United National Party-Sri Lanka Muslim Congress alliance, to a high degree of intimidation. Although TMVP candidates canvass for votes without the open use of guns, the power of the guns they keep behind the scene and are prepared to use is also known to the people and to their political competitors. In parts of the east, in Batticaloa and Amparai, the TMVP's posters are pasted all over while those of rival political parties are barely to be seen, and when seen have been blacked out.
The decision about which party to vote for is likely to be especially complex for the Tamil voters in the east. The improved security situation, the military upper hand obtained by the government and the proliferation of development projects would weigh the balance in favor of the government.
A recent public opinion poll by the Center for Policy Alternatives has highlighted the fact that the economic difficulties facing the people are the biggest problem for all ethnic communities. At the same time the survey also showed that the issue of a peaceful settlement is especially important to the Tamil people, who are the main victims of the war and the human rights violations that result from it.
The long stalling on the part of the government to come up with a credible power sharing proposal to end the ethnic conflict and restart the peace process with the LTTE, coupled with slow military progress in the north, points to the possibility of the war being extended indefinitely. During the course of the escalated conflict for the past two years, they have been subjected to large scale displacement and other human rights violations, including child recruitment, abduction of women and political assassinations. The motivation for the Tamil voters of the east to cast their votes against the government and its Tamil political ally, the TMVP, can be strong.
On the other hand, the traditional rivalry between the Tamil and Muslim communities for dominance in the east has also surfaced during the present election campaign. In the absence of a comprehensive population survey of both the Northern and Eastern provinces, there remains a doubt as to the actual population composition of these two provinces.
At the last full census that took place in 1981, the Tamils were shown to be the largest community in the Eastern Province, followed by the Muslims. It is now believed that the Muslims are the largest. This means that the post of chief minister of the Eastern Province is within their reach. The UNP-SLMC opposition alliance will almost certainly appoint SLMC leader Rauf Hakeem as chief minister if they win the election.
A flawed electoral process that combines intimidation of voters and rival political parties by the armed cadres of the TMVP with the government misuse of state resources as already reported by election monitors could lead to a high level of Muslim discontent. With the government bringing Iran to the center stage of the country's foreign policy, the potential for the Muslim population to seek solidarity with their co-religionists internationally in the face of unjust deprivation is now higher than ever.
Whoever wins the election and leads the Eastern Province will have a major responsibility to heal the wounds of a politically and ethnically decisive election which is being held under abnormal conditions.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)