Font size: 
Politicians and scholars will be invited to the inauguration from around the world. It is still unknown whether the Chinese Communist Party will send a representative -- which would mark a great breakthrough in cross-strait relations -- but it can be expected to send a congratulatory message expressing goodwill toward the new leadership.
Since Ma's overwhelming election victory over the Democratic Progressive Party in March, cross-straits relations have visibly warmed. This was apparent when Chinese President Hu Jintao met Vincent Siew, Ma's running mate, during last month's Boao Forum on Hainan Island. At this meeting, Hu voiced support for weekend charter flights between Taiwan and the mainland and for mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, both projects the KMT had promised in its election campaign to push forward.
At the end of April Hu Jintao, in his capacity as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, met Lien Chan, honorary chairman of Taiwan's KMT. The meeting signaled growing cooperation between the two parties.
The return of the KMT to power could mean a return to what is called the "92 Consensus," an agreement reached in 1992 in Hong Kong between the governments in Beijing and Taipei, in which both sides agreed on the principle that there is only one China, to which both belong -- although each side had it own interpretation of what "one China" meant. This agreement gave the two sides a platform on which to negotiate interaction between them.
The administration of current leader Chen Shui-bian, in power since 2000, refused to recognize this agreement, made under a previous KMT administration. Instead, Chen has sought independence for Taiwan. This angered mainland China, which branded him a "troublemaker," and embarrassed his biggest ally, the United States, which had encouraged him to preserve the status quo in the region.
During the election campaign, the KMT pledged to improve relations with mainland China, while at the same time preserving Taiwanese identity and boosting the economy through its agricultural, financial and business policies. These positions contributed largely to the KMT's return to power.
Hence analysts on both sides are anticipating warmer cross-strait relations. Both the CCP and the KMT have expressed the desire for a healthier relationship based on win-win policies that downplay their differences.
There is one inconsistency in this trend, however, which is Ma Ying-jeou's appointment of Lai Shin-yuan as the next head of the island's Mainland Affairs Council. Her appointment is controversial because she is a former legislator of the Taiwan Solidarity Union, which supports the island's independence from mainland China. Her appointment to a post related to mainland affairs seems to contradict Ma's determination to improve ties with the mainland.
Disapproving voices have already been raised within the KMT over Lai's appointment. Chiang Hsiao-yen, the son of former Taiwan leader Chiang Ching-kuo and a KMT legislator, criticized Ma for putting the wrong person in the wrong place at the wrong time. Chiang made the remark during an interview in Beijing, when he accompanied Lien Chen on his visit to China. At the same time, KMT vice chairman Chiang Pin-kung canceled his planned trip to the mainland, where he was to meet Chen Yunlin, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing.
Some analysts say Ma chose Lai to appear more balanced, avoiding the accusation that he would "sell out" Taiwan. Also, it allows him to keep a tight rein over senior KMT officials who prefer to move quickly toward unification.
In a recent 30-minute interview with Hong Kong's Phoenix TV, Ma repeatedly stressed his support for the verbal agreements made by Vincent Siew and Lien Chan in China. He also clearly stated he would stick to the 92 Consensus. Although he denied any plans for an early meeting with Hu Jintao, he made it clear that such a meeting could take place if "big achievements" were made in cross-strait relations.
Therefore, the coming to power of the KMT might herald a more peaceful period for the island, both within and beyond the island. It might even bring progress in extending Taiwan's "international space," for which the DDP worked strenuously, but failed to accomplish. The number of countries that have diplomatic relations with Taiwan has decreased to 23. Taiwan has also failed to join the World Health Organization, due to Beijing's opposition.
The above issues concern Taiwan's identity and prestige in the international arena, but also the interests of the Taiwanese people. Taiwan is very concerned over joining the WHO, for example, to protect the health of its people. Taiwan is also worried over a potential military threat from the mainland, therefore the KMT has called for a peace treaty to be signed. It would also like to see Taiwan's agricultural products enter the mainland soon, and expanded financial, commercial and tourist cooperation.
On the basis of the 92 Consensus, it would appear that all things are now possible. Does this mean we are heading for a honeymoon in cross-strait relations? Unfortunately, romantic dreams do not equal reality. There are many hard issues to be tackled and many more issues likely to emerge. At best, cross-strait ties are likely to swing back and forth like a pendulum for the foreseeable future. In addition, internal KMT issues and relations with opposition parties must be taken into consideration on the Taiwan side.
For now, building a greater level of trust is essential in building a foundation for the improvement of cross-strait relations. Flexibility and wisdom will be required of leaders on both sides. Ma Ying-jeou will undoubtedly have a chance to make a breakthrough in easing tensions in this fragile relationship. If he is skillful, he has a rare opportunity to make history.
--
(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a Ph.D. candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. His research interests focus on conflict management and identity construction. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
