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China's defeat of India in a brief war in 1962 never left the Indian mindset. A certain amount of fear is still visible when Indians talk of China's might in Tibet. This has nothing to do with how much military pressure the Chinese can exert on India; it is based on the West's general elevation of China to an economic powerhouse and the massive positive publicity China enjoys.
India appears to lack self-confidence. It is not sure of itself. As a democracy, India has made phenomenal progress, which is clearly visible today. On a comparative basis, if you took away all the foreign direct investment from China, all you would have left is a dying and decaying dictatorial structure. Right now China is the darling of the Western media; it seems that China can do no evil, even in cracking down on Tibet. That is rubbing off on India as well.
Well, now the evil has happened in Tibet, and few in the West have spoken out against it. The media that have reported from Tibet have tried to put a non-partisan spin on it, for fear of incurring China's displeasure. Imagine the same thing happening in India, or look at what has happened in Pakistan in the last three months. The Western media has dubbed Pakistan a failed state.
The point is that almost everybody is afraid of China. No one wants to incur its displeasure.
India is maintaining a tightlipped policy on Tibet. It gifted away this region to China by mistake in 1950, in the name of friendship, and China has perpetuated its hold through oppression.
First The Chinese ejected the Tibetan ruler, the Dalai Lama, in 1959. Later they crushed with force the Khmapa rebellion. In order to perpetuate their policies they settled untold numbers of Han Chinese in the area to dilute the ethnic Tibetans. In order to wed the far-flung Tibet with the rest of China, they built rail and road networks, even though they have no economic value. This huge expense has been to strangulate any leftover Tibetan independence movement.
India has remained all but silent. It has shut up the Dalai Lama in a faraway hill station in the northwest. The youth there, who have been staging noisy demonstrations in support of their compatriots in Tibet, are being harshly handled. In summary, India has bought the Chinese line on the Dalai Lama, and he is being blamed for the anti-Chinese outbreaks. India, mutely, will do nothing to upset the Chinese.
What has India to gain or lose from Tibet's cry for freedom?
India has everything to gain if China's grip on Tibet is loosened. It would be still better if the Dalai Lama was restored to power and China's military was forced to leave. The wrongs of the last 60 years would be righted, if that happened.
China's claim over Tibet is hollow. Into Tibet the Chinese came marching militarily, completely unopposed. India in 1950 accepted it as a fait accompli.
A great benefit, if Tibet's cry for freedom is heard, is that China's prestige will be cut down to size. The Chinese do not wish that; hence they have rushed their highly equipped rapid reaction force to the region. Images of how China will reinforce the India-China border in case of trouble are beginning to form in the Indian security officers' minds. Now they have a direct example of Chinese plans if there is a firefight on the Indian border.
Very soon, rightly or wrongly, China will suspect an Indian hand in the Tibetan uprising. They will reinforce the Indian border. Like the border fight of 1962, they may create a border incident and ultimately try to turn it into a military confrontation. This time India must reply with vigor. The Tibetan uprising will help.
The net benefit to India from the trouble in Tibet is that China is being cut down to size. India can relax a bit this year as China focuses much of its attention on controlling Tibetan monks and freedom groups, who will thank the Western media for not ignoring them.
China's desire for positive publicity ahead of the Olympic Games is taking a beating. Now the Chinese will have to wait until all the athletes have gone home, and the world has seen all their new infrastructure, before they take any more harsh measures.
India must prepare militarily and diplomatically for a post-Olympic offensive by China. An overconfident China may take on the Dalai Lama and his followers. If India takes a pessimistic or critical view of China, it may find itself facing a military force on its border.
Why are the world leaders silent?
No one has spoken out strongly on Tibet or on the Dalai Lama's behalf. The British prime minister will only see him in private. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi has come to the Dalai Lama's temporary home in India to offer her private support. Other leaders in the United States and Europe -- except France -- are going about their business silently. France is the only major country that is at least considering boycotting the Olympic Games opening ceremony.
Why are the world leaders so afraid of China? They were so eloquent recently when Kosovo decided to go independent. They forced a ten-year war on the Serbs in Europe to break Yugoslavia up into minor ethnic states. Were they not at the forefront to get Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia their independence from the Soviets? How is Tibet's independence any different?
In my view, if one country breaks the ice by speaking out against China, others will follow suit. The United States is too much engrossed in its economic troubles at home and in losing the war in Iraq. In addition, the U.S. economic relationship with China has shifted in favor of China. The United States will mute its criticism, but will side with India if India takes the initiative. Europe may follow the U.S. lead and side with India also.
It is only India that can summon up its courage and side with the Dalai Lama. For this, India has to ignore China's displeasure in the Olympic year. Also, the United States will have to curb any Pakistani ambitions against India, if any.
If India shows its support to the Tibetan cause, China will first warn India of the consequences, even if the support is diplomatic. It will then encourage Pakistan to take on India, by sending a few more missiles and fighter jets. Later it will mount a few naval expeditions in the Indian Ocean, but this will be fruitless. The Indian Navy is too powerful near its home ports.
China knows India's weakness at its border with Tibet, and will likely create a few incidents there. Unfortunately for the Chinese, a walkover like 1962 is no longer possible. If China takes an unpleasant military posture, India could switch its support for Tibet from diplomatic to armed insurrection. This will sap China's energies.
In summary, somebody has to stand up for the Tibetans in their hour of need. Even if no other country utters a word, India should take the initiative. But first it must strengthen its military position in the north.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
