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Shortly after this -- following a great deal of jiggling and juggling of names by the Pakistan People's Party, keeping the media on tenterhooks -- party head Asif Zardari decided to nominate former speaker Yusuf Reza Gilani for the post of prime minister. Gilani's low-key profile, his clout within the party, and perhaps his lack of ambition, won him the post.
On Sunday the ex-commando, former general and presently "unsure" President Pervez Musharraf, after hailing a "new era of democracy in Pakistan," rode in a carriage to inspect a National Day parade wearing traditional civvies for the first time at such an event, looking smug and puffy. With the country's nuclear arsenal and military might on full display, the day reminded Pakistanis of 1940, when Muslims in an undivided India adopted a resolution for a homeland of their own.
When Fehmida Mirza, a doctor by profession and wife of a PPP member of parliament close to Zardari, became the first woman speaker, it was evident that the late Benazir Bhutto's husband was taking no chances. He could neither trust the PPP old guard, who have a strong political base of their own, nor pitch for the revered stalwarts in the party.
But can Fehmida Mirza help empower Pakistani women?
A majority of girls are not in the education system, or barely cross the threshold of primary school, in rural Pakistan. Recently militants targeted a village school for girls. Visiting U.S. senators Joe Biden and John Kerry have suggested providing money for rural schools and health programs. While illiteracy among village womenfolk cannot be eradicated instantly, aid measures like these may in the long run help alleviate their misery in a feudal, male-dominated society.
But who will convince the terrorists who are now targeting Pakistan?
Zardari and Nawaz Sharif have talked of dialogue and negotiations with the militants, since they are mostly of ethnic Pashtun stock and Pakistanis to boot. Can such a dialogue hold much promise when U.S. drones keep striking at the militants and servicemen aid Pakistani forces to battle them? And when the Pakistani military is under increased U.S. pressure to kill and torture indiscriminately?
Homegrown terror cannot be tamped down by force alone. And most Pakistanis, along with the terrorists, see their military doing the bidding of the United States.
To what purpose will Yusuf Reza Gilani run his office? Zardari may have handpicked him for the role, but rumors are rife that Gilani is only keeping the seat warm. Zardari needs -- and he will not fail -- a by-election to make him eligible for the prime minister's office.
Gilani's nomination was at the expense of Sindh's Amin Fahim, who had looked after the PPP during Bhutto's exile. Gilani may placate the Punjabi lobby, but can he silence the dissenting voices within the PPP? And can Zardari clean up his reputation among Pakistanis as Mr. Ten Percent, even though the courts -- as a conciliatory measure by a drowning Musharraf -- cleared him?
Can Zardari really go all the way with Nawaz Sharif after strengthening Parliament, and reinstate the dismissed judges and impeach Musharraf? Not likely, since the president has the power to dismiss Parliament and remove the prime minister. Will Zardari or Gilani strengthen Parliament enough to minimize Musharraf's role?
Why handpick someone from among his friends to be the speaker then?
Musharraf appointed his nephew, Nadeem Taj, to the top post at the all-powerful intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence. In Gen. Afshaq Kiyani he has a loyal ally, who commented some time back, when Nawaz Sharif and his party men were gunning for Musharraf, that the army would not be drawn into unnecessary controversies.
Zardari has recently mentioned about Kashmir being integral to Pakistan, which is music to the ears of the military and the ISI. Did he need to say this if he wants the military out of politics? Didn't he also stress the need to benefit from an emerging economy like India on an Indian TV channel?
More events will unfold on Pakistan's bumpy and cratered road to democracy.
The heightened U.S. support and troop presence cannot be at the cost of Musharraf and the Pakistani military, which have been their traditional allies, not the political parties. The situation cannot be different with a new White House occupant, given the strategic-interest compulsion factored into the U.S. Pakistan policy and its fallout over several decades.
And with a surging totalitarian China -- also Pakistan's ally -- growing intrepid, the United States may have to stay the course or lose Pakistan. Pakistan itself has precious little to lose.
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(Susenjit Guha is a freelance writer living in Kolkata, India. He can be contacted at sguha60@yahoo.com. ©Copyright Susenjit Guha.)
