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Nevertheless, there appears to be a majority agreement that the government has been remarkably successful in prosecuting the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and needs more time to complete its mission of destroying it. This is the view publicly articulated by those in the public eye, whose view is deemed influential and is possibly the view of the silent majority as well. It may explain why the people as a whole appear to be extremely patient in the face of 25 percent inflation, abductions, political thuggery and other infirmities of governance.
Whenever discussion takes place in public there seems to be agreement that what the government is doing to defeat the LTTE is necessary even if it is also extremely costly. Many business elites who have been traditional supporters of the opposition United National Party, because of its more market-friendly economic policies, have both tacitly and openly acknowledged the correctness of the government's policy on the war. Although the tourist hotels in the south are almost empty, the workers there say that they are prepared to sacrifice so that the LTTE problem may be finished off, finally. The inevitable conclusion is that the big swell of public opinion stands behind the government's war against the LTTE.
In the face of this tide of righteous nationalism, those who question the costs of war and the possibility of things not going quite according to plan are being socially and politically ostracized. Even the envoys of friendly foreign countries that have greatly assisted Sri Lanka in the past, and continue to do so today, such as the United States and India, are also at the receiving end of brickbats. This is for objecting to human rights violations in the course of the war and for asking that a viable political solution be manifested even on paper to begin with. Those who do not agree with the government's assessment and who point to a different reality are denounced as having hidden agendas or as being traitors. In these circumstances of triumphalism that is backed by every appearance of public support, the role of the opposition parties has become extremely difficult.
On the one hand, the opposition parties need to be mindful of the mood of the electorate. There is also the need to be supportive of government initiatives that are in the national interest. On the other hand, the opposition parties have to be true to their own analyzes of the prevailing situation. They also need give expression to views that are not a part of the dominant mainstream. The silenced voice today is that of the Tamil people, whether living in Colombo or the north and east. In the face of continuing detentions, abductions and disappearances, Tamils living outside of the north and east also will often deem discretion to be the better part of valor. The Tamils of the north and east either are silenced through terror or have little real choice, as seen at the recently concluded Batticaloa elections.
Obtaining conditions of peace in a multi ethnic, multi religious and politically dynamic country requires a measure of consensus not only within the largest community, but also between the different communities. It is unlikely that the Tamil people who have been displaced in their tens of thousands, and been abducted, killed and had their children forcibly recruited in their hundreds to join the LTTE and other armed parties, would acquiesce in a solution that is imposed on them by government and majority power. It is unlikely that the Tamil political consciousness that has sought power sharing, autonomy and equal rights for over fifty years can ever be suppressed. It is more likely that in the absence of a negotiated political solution that the Tamil people deem is just to them and to others, resentment will permeate the community. In such a situation, the LTTE will retain sufficient Tamil support both locally and from the expatriate Tamil community to continue to survive to fight, destabilize and impoverish Sri Lanka for the near future.
Now, however, the rest of the polity, which is larger by far, seems to be of the view that the government's military campaign is successful and needs to be taken to the finish line. In such a situation, it is difficult to stand up and say no, especially if one is a politician who is expected to be close to the pulse of the people. Despite pressures from the majority, the UNP under its present leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe has consistently spoken publicly and stood for a political solution to resolve the ethnic conflict without resorting to the horrors of war.
Holding to this position in the face of strong popular support for war now requires an extraordinary degree of political vision and commitment. So far, the UNP has not joined the bandwagon of war and nationalism. Instead, it relies on a political approach to conflict resolution in contrast to the position of the government, and maybe even most of the people now. So long as the main position party maintains this position, it offers the country another chance not to be trapped in a war with no end.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
