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A 72 percent majority of the people, polled in a survey in India, a year back, believed that U.S. is a better strategic partner than China or Russia. Then, why is the Left Front swimming against the tide? Their reasons are: a mix of ideology rooted in the now defunct Cold War, also Communists wish to give China a bit more room to rise and challenge the U.S. sooner than later for dominance in Asia.
A very polite and understanding prime minister of India gave into the Left Front's pressure to table the well-negotiated nuclear deal in the Parliament. It was a trick to sabotage the deal. The Indian parliamentary system like its British system gives elected cabinet the authority to negotiate deals and approve them. The Indian cabinet has approved the deal. Communists, the Left Front's principal component, were against it from the start; hence they played the trick of letting parliament also approve it. Naive ruling coalition did not see through the game and they gave in to their demand. Since the Communist's outside support to the ruling coalition is vital for staying in power, it became essential to listen to them and then disagree. This disagreement will force mid-term elections.
The Congress Party, which is the principal component of today's ruling coalition, is scared of the midterm polls. They may or may not return to power, given the circumstances it finds itself. If the economy is doing fine, the vital food production is doing better, then why is the Congress Party shy of elections. Well, they lost three consecutive state assembly elections recently. The winning Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) thinks they are on the winning streak and can unseat the Congress Party, if midterm polls are called.
The other consideration for the Congress Party is the Left Front's success in midterm polls. If they do well at the expense of the Congress Party, then their return to power is even more questionable.
The BJP sensing victory in the elections is organizing itself well. Lessons from their 2004 losses to the Congress Party have been learnt and digested as is apparent from their string of victories. They have also settled the leadership issue. An old party boss, who has been aspiring to become the prime minister for the last 30 years, has been named their leader. He is a well-known conservative hawk with influence in almost all corners of India. In addition he is known not to be averse to coalition with other smaller centrist parties. The latter will be the key to forming a new government.
The issue of leadership within the Congress Party is far from settled. The current prime minister does not wish to continue any more. Another potential prime ministerial candidate - Rahul Gandhi is too inexperienced and naive to sit in this critical job.
The Congress Party president has declared that she is unfit for the job, because of her foreign birth criteria. If she does declare to lead as the future prime minister, BJP will pounce upon her foreign birth issue and put the Congress Party on the defensive. It is unlikely that other candidates will emerge within a short time frame. Therefore, the Congress Party may choose to fight the election without a prime ministerial candidate. It is a drawback especially if the 300 millions middle-class is going to vote for candidates with a future prime minister's capability in mind.
The Left Front is far from a cohesive group. Its only hope is to be a king maker. In recent months, its role of sole representative of workers and small farmers has taken a beating. In the state of West Bengal, the local Communist government has been accused of murder, intimidation, and forcible seizure of land. Voters in this state, when they go to polls, are unlikely to forget these misdeeds. Since the Left Front elects most of its candidates from West Bengal, with all these happenings, greater success of their parties is unlikely. Instead, it may return fewer candidates to the Parliament.
Lesser state parties are neither the Congress Party nor the BJP supporters. They rather are opportunists and will throw their weight behind whoever offers them better perks. These parties are active in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Winning these two states for either the Congress Party coalition or the BJP Coalition will be the key to power.
With divided and fractured politics, one or the other coalition will rule India.
The question is what will be the fate of the Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal. If the Congress Party and its friends return to power without Communist support, passage of the Indo-U.S. Nuclear Deal is guaranteed. If the BJP coalition returns to power, they will find itself in a bind. They like the deal and know that it is the last chance in a generation to get out of nuclear apartheid, but also remain tied by their previous opposition to the deal. This opposition was based less on principle; rather it was based on opposing the Congress Party's initiatives, good or bad.
So, is India better off not holding midterm polls?
The answer is yes, provided discussions at the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Supplier Group, in the next few weeks goes India's way. The Indian prime minister, himself not being a politician, is trying to address all the Left Front's concerns through a good agreement at the IAEA. If he succeeds, the Left Front will be left speechless. Then passage through the NSG meeting will be easier. The U.S. is supporting India to have an easy passage.
The last step of the U.S. Congress approval of the 123 Agreement, IAEA agreement and the NSG approval although not easy, should happen before the November elections in U.S.
Nevertheless, if the midterm elections are forced on India then it does not matter which coalition wins power, as it will be important to neutralize Communist influence on the growing Indo-U.S. strategic partnership. Voters in the Left leaning states are to be clearly asked the question whether they prefer India emerging as one of the world's leading power or would they prefer that China take the lead. Communists will be speechless to offer any explanation as to why they prefer China to India. Already an irate populace, not happy with the forced land acquisitions, may dump the Communists.
It is about time that BJP also dump its opposition to the nuclear deal. Politicking at the expense of national welfare may result in paying a high price down the road. As for the Congress Party, looking for a prime ministerial candidate outside the party leader's immediate family will be advantageous.
In short, midterm polls in India are a certainty. In all probability, it will be called after the 2008 Budget on Feb. 28 is announced or soon thereafter. By then, the outcome of the IAEA discussions will be known. Communists realizing their mistake may relent and give tacit approval to the deal. Then India could move to the next step of signing and sealing the deal through the NSG and the U.S. Congress. Otherwise, elections and a new government may leave little time to settle all before the November elections in the U.S. It may still happen but probably on the last day.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
