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This tragedy not only ends Bhutto's ambitious political career but creates uncertainty and instability for Pakistan and the Muslim world, extending into the foreseeable future. The assassination also alerted the world that Pakistan is far from being on a democratic track.
The threat of al-Qaida-oriented terrorism is prominent and its leverage over the Muslim world and the Western world is salient. The unknown composition of Pakistan's future government after the failure of U.S.-designed political arrangements for a coalition government throws the Pakistani chessboard into chaos.
Since Pakistan became independent chaos and conflicts have been never ending. First is the conflict with its bigger neighbor India; since it became separated from India in 1947, both India and Pakistan have laid claim to the Kashmir region. This territorial dispute led to war in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999, and remains unresolved today.
Other headaches include conflicts revolving around border disputes, religious and tribal influences, and security or strategic issues such as nuclear competition. Relations between Pakistan and India are also shaped by geopolitics.
During the Afghan War initiated by the former Soviet Union, Pakistan served as an ideal rear for the anti-Soviet forces. This was again the case when the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001 following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. Al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden and the remaining Taliban forces are said to still be in hiding in the forests and mountains of Pakistan. Since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Pakistan has again become home to insurgents and extremists from other regions.
In addition, some 30 to 35 million Pashtuns live in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, but they are divided and engaged in internal feuds. Issues of money, honor and nationalism frequently are behind the bloodshed. Although the Pakistani province of Baluchistan is rich in oil, gas and other minerals, most of which remain unexploited, the people of this region have a long history of chafing against central authority, having revolted four times since independence in 1947.
These special geopolitical and political circumstances make Pakistan especially important to the United States, which regards Pakistan's geographic position and political attitude crucial to its own interests and strategy. So the Americans are reluctant to brush aside Musharraf's military regime as long as it is willing to cooperate with the U.S. anti-terrorism strategy.
However, domestic politics do not always help international politics, especially in terms of political or ideological struggles. This is particularly true for Pakistan, especially for Benazir Bhutto, whose family heritage made her a revolutionary.
Bhutto's father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who served as Pakistan's president and prime minister in the 1970s, had initiated democratic reforms, but was executed in 1979 after being convicted of ordering the murder of a political opponent. She later succeeded her father and became prime minister in 1988 and 1993, but finally went into exile in Dubai in 1998 because of a corruption scandal.
Her determination to revive democracy on one hand while keeping a strong fist over terrorists on the other made her a candidate with whom the United States was willing to cooperate.
Yet political enthusiasm was not enough to keep democracy alive. Bhutto's assassination struck a strong blow against her supporters and the United States, but also against democracy. It cautioned the world that in such a country filled with complicated disputes and conflicts, democracy tends to be fragile.
In order to keep democracy on track, a country must have strong governance over its territory, people and institutions. Lacking this, maintaining order becomes a priority. Pakistan, like many other nations with diverse ethnic, religious and political groups, must first seek peaceful and legitimate means to maintain order and eliminate terrorism before talking about democracy.
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(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a Ph.D. candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. His research interests focus on conflict management and identity construction. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@gmail.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
