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Political analysts have speculated that Arroyo will bypass both the Senate and the House of Representatives in an effort to amend the 19-year old Philippine charter, and instead push for a people's initiative by gathering signatures from at least 12 percent of the country's registered voters. The goal would be to change the form of government from a presidential to a parliamentary system patterned after the European Parliament.
In previous years, the government's proposal to pursue charter change was met with storms of criticism from different political groups, including the hierarchy of the influential Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines and even some allies of the ruling party in the legislative branch of government.
The compelling reasons why a majority of Filipinos oppose changing the Constitution can be summarized in four major points:
First it would allow Arroyo, who is seen as a corrupt president, to be re-elected and to remain in office as Prime Minister of the country under the parliamentary form of government.
Second, it would allow current elected officials including governors, mayors and even congressmen to cling to power even if their terms as elected officials expired in 2010.
Third, charter change would remove prohibitions on foreign ownership of land and of institutions involving the media, education health and other profitable sectors. Some Filipinos fear this could reduce them to second-class citizens in their own country.
And last but not least, changes in the economic landscape could lead to the sacrifice of basic political rights and civil liberties at the altar of corporate interests.
Arroyo sees charter change as a way to prolong her stay in power beyond 2010, when her term officially ends and she is expected to step down. She wants to implement constitutional changes in 2008 to achieve her desired agenda.
Those who oppose such changes, including the fisherfolk group Pamalakaya, believe that Arroyo and her supporters in the government have earmarked around 5 billion to 10 billion pesos (US$120 million to $240 million) in taxpayers' money to push the people's initiative. These funds are meant to draw the active participation of governors, mayors and other local government officials down to the village level, to ensure the victory of the initiative as a means of changing the Constitution.
According to law, there are three ways of amending the 1987 Constitution. The first two are through a Constituent Assembly or a Constitutional Convention organized by senators and congressmen. The other way is through a people's initiative, with the signatures of at least 12 percent of the total voting population of the country, including at least 3 percent of every congressional district in the country.
Many political experts agree that an administration initiative to finance various projects at the grassroots level is intended to court the support of the voting public and give the impression that charter change would mean a flood of support for projects at the local and village levels.
The president's political opponents have said the government is pushing a 30-billion peso (over US$720 million) pork barrel for Arroyo in the 2008 budget because she has earmarked almost 33 percent of her audit-free funds for the charter change campaign.
Department of Budget and Management Secretary Rolando Andaya Jr. has denied that the alleged 30-billion-peso fund for the president exists. He says the president's discretionary fund is only 800 million pesos (US$19 million), not the higher figure claimed by opposition lawmakers.
Aside from funding local projects, the government is expected to resort to distribution of cash gifts to local government officials to get their support and rally their constituents on the proposed charter amendments through the people's initiative.
Next year, Arroyo is expected to officially re-open the debate on constitutional change for the second, third or fourth time around. The previous rounds were won by the Filipino people. There's no reason why the anti-charter change forces will not succeed this time. They are armed with political experience and maturity, which are enough to frustrate Arroyo's self-serving bid for political survival.
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(Gerry Albert Corpuz is a correspondent of Bulatlat.com, an alternative Philippine online news site. He is also head of the information department of Pamalakaya, a national federation of small fisherfolk organizations in the Philippines. His website is www.gerryalbertcorpuz.motime.com, and he can be contacted at themanager98@yahoo.com. ©Copyright Gerry Albert Corpuz.)
