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Over seventy years ago in Germany, Hitler created an enemy out of the Jews and came to power. Nearer home we have Chief Minister Narendra Modi of Gujarat state in India romping home to victory with a large majority of Hindus backing him, although he has been blamed for being one of the chief instigators of the riots that killed over 2000 Muslims in 2002.
In the face of racist politics that make smaller ethnic communities the villains or the sacrificial lambs, those who speak of dialogue, inclusion and compromise find themselves being excluded. The demagogues who shout about how race and religion are being threatened and promise to forcibly suppress their opposition are more likely to prevail. Civic and religious groups that speak differently go unheeded by the macro political forces that use their power and money to further the lines of division and to promote their own futures. The same holds true of Sri Lanka.
At the level of appearances it might be the case that the government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa has devised an unbeatable strategy. It is using the ethnic conflict to mobilize the Sinhalese ethnic majority to a war that primarily oppresses the Tamil ethnic minority, tens of thousands of whom are refugees, and hundreds or even thousands of whom suddenly get arrested at the whim of the government.
Due to the non-democratic nature of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, as well as their practice of using terror and the extremity of their separatist demands, the government has been able to project its war against the LTTE -- and the collateral and sometimes deliberate damage to the Tamil people -- as justifiable to the Sinhalese people.
Several tens of thousands of Tamil people have been newly rendered a refugee population due to the escalating fighting in areas of the north. There is also the targeting of civilians for brutal execution by extrajudicial means both by government-backed forces and the LTTE. Television news now shows the bodies of victims in Jaffna. The daily death toll varies, sometimes reaching five or six, as on one of the days I was in Jaffna recently.
It seems that those in positions of authority take this death toll in their stride because this is a time of war. They see themselves as patriots and call the death toll collateral damage to appease their conscience.
The terrible feature of present-day Sri Lankan democracy is that fighting the war has become a matter of self-advancement for those in power. At the recent vote on the budget the government was able to prevail because the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, or People's Liberation Front, which had been speaking vehemently against governmental corruption and economic failure, decided not to vote against the government. One of the main reasons for their controversial turnaround was the war. They did not wish to see the government unseated because they approve of how the war is being conducted by the government.
In turn, members of the government constantly assuage the desperation of the people, who are feeling the economic pressures of a 25-percent inflation rate, by talking about the successes in the war. They promise that the war will yield military victory in the north as it did in the east. The immediate targets that are said to be achievable are the opening of the Mannar-Jaffna seaside road which, if that area is captured, will run entirely through government-controlled territory (unlike Highway A9 that runs through LTTE-controlled territory) or the capture of the LTTE's present administrative capital of Kilinochchi.
Government strategists appear to believe that a fresh military victory, on the lines of the earlier eastern victory, would give the government a new lease of life. The end of the present rains could see the launch of a large-scale military operation. Perhaps it might even give the government the confidence to go in for a snap general election and obtain a clear majority in Parliament.
At present the government is hostage to the JVP, as it lacks a majority of its own in Parliament. Accordingly the government's strategy for the new year could be one of military victory followed by political consolidation, followed, presumably, by further military victories. However, if Sri Lanka's own experience over the past quarter century and the situations in other parts of the world are any guide, the likelihood of peace and justice dawning through this government strategy is extremely remote if not totally impossible.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
