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The economic costs of the war have led inflation to new heights and led to a slowdown in infrastructure development. The implications of the military action are also being felt in the loss of democratic freedoms and protections by sections of the people living outside of the north and east, and even in Colombo. Some months ago, Tamils living in Colombo were subjected to abductions, ransom taking and killings on a large scale.
The latest victim is the independent media. Last week's nighttime commando-style raid on the printing press of the Leader Publications, which led to it being burned down, is an indication of the impunity that exists at the present time. This attack bore a resemblance to the March 2006 attack on the Uthayan press in Jaffna. Both presses lay within the high security zones of Ratmalana and Jaffna respectively. There have so far been no arrests or suspects announced by the government in either case.
In the north and east, the government's military control is being supplemented by resort to armed Tamil parties, be they the EPDP, PLOTE, Karuna group or Pillayan group. The association that these groups have with the legitimate armed forces of the state is likely to lead to impunity, not only in the north and east, as at present, but also in other parts of the country.
The question is whether this type of anarchy is what the people of Sri Lanka wanted of their own volition? Or is it that the people wanted something else and are being misled by a charismatic leadership with a sense of war mission, even if it is leading the country to anarchy and to doom?
During the presidential election of Nov. 2005, President Mahinda Rajapaksa campaigned for peace with honor and promised a political solution in three months. He also said he would meet personally with LTTE leader Velupillai Pirapaharan to negotiate a settlement.
But the situation today is entirely different. The president's appearance of confidence in his mission of war, and the assistance of 108 ministers of government, most of whom echo him, has served to swing public opinion in favor of a reinterpreted and distorted mandate.
The national budget vote on Nov. 19, which the government survived, showed the importance of the 26 parliamentarians who have crossed over at different intervals from the main opposition party, the United National Party, to the government. The people who voted for them had a different vision placed before them by the opposition leadership, and it is for that vision that those people voted. But the 26 defectors from the UNP, who describe themselves as reformists, are sustaining the government in an entirely different direction of war and breakdown of rule of law.
However, the 118-102 victory in the Nov. 19 vote does not guarantee lasting success for the government. The third and final reading of the budget on Dec. 14 will necessitate another crucial vote, and their remains a strong possibility that the government will lose this vote. The decision of the People's Liberation Front, or JVP, to oppose the government in the Nov. 19 vote may prove decisive when it comes to the Dec. 14 vote.
On the one hand, the JVP shares the government's militaristic and nationalist approach to the ethnic conflict and has the same reservations about an ethnic-based power-sharing political solution. But as a party that also represents the impoverished and marginalized in society, the JVP has also to deal with the perception of rampant corruption, wastage and ostentatious living in the government, which is generating resentment among the general population.
In the run-up to the budget, the JVP insisted that the government should prune down its jumbo Cabinet and the number of ministers, who in various positions number 108 at the latest count. The government's strategy of survival has been to lure opposition parliamentarians over to its side with the reward of a ministerial portfolio and the personal and political benefits that accrue to such positions.
Ironically, an important reason for the government to survive the Nov. 19 vote was the support of two important ethnic minority parties. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, with six seats, that represents the Muslims of the war-affected east, and the Ceylon Workers Congress, with seven seats, that represents the Tamils in the central hills, voted along with the ruling coalition. Apart from the desire to be on the winning side and thereby retain the plums of government office, there is little reason for the ethnic minorities to unite with a government so wedded to war and ethnic majority Sinhalese nationalism as the present one.
Now that the JVP has demonstrated its willingness to vote against the government, the leaders of these two parties may decide that their bread is buttered on the other side. The rational calculation of their self-interest may now coincide with the interests of the people who voted for them.
One of the more tragic features of Sri Lankan democracy is the manner in which political leaders dishonor the mandates they asked for and were given by the people. The president, who promised a political solution within three months and to personally meet the LTTE leader and negotiate with him; the UNP reformists, who defected from their party to assist the government after promising to bring back practices of good governance and peacemaking; and the SLMC and CWC leaderships, all need to reconsider their stances.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
