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The expanded group acknowledges that the number of stakeholders in the region includes more than the Israelis and the Palestinians. However, two important players -- Iran and the Palestinian faction Hamas -- were not present.
The conference leaves all the existing issues unchanged. For centuries, especially since 1948 when Israel was established as a state, wars and conflicts have defined the region's history. Bloody conflicts erupted in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, and 2001. It would be an Arabian Nights tale if a few conferences could eradicate the hatred, resentment and political antagonism accumulated among the region's people.
The essential obstacles to peace remain. If Palestinian statehood is the goal, decisions must be made on the final borders, sovereignty over disputed Jerusalem and the fate of Palestinian refugees who lost their homes when Israel was created in 1948. These issues have tormented peace efforts for decades.
While Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have expressed their willingness to engage in a peace process, in the midst of vague statements of intent, no specifics have been agreed upon.
It has been considered a good sign that Syria and Saudi Arabia, both hostile to Israel, joined the talks -- although the Saudis refused to shake the Israelis' hands. Diplomats from the Middle East Quartet -- Russia, the European Union, the United Nations and the United States -- and the Group of Eight industrialized nations conveyed the message that financial and infrastructure resources will be available if a substantive peace agreement is ever reached.
Even before the meeting, leaders of the Palestinian Islamic militant group Hamas -- who were not invited to Annapolis -- had labeled Abbas a traitor, and vowed to reject any decisions to come out of the conference. Even if his words had held any substance, Hamas would have immediately rejected whatever Abbas said.
Last June, a month before Bush announced plans for the peace conference, the militant Palestinian faction stormed to power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas now actually governs the tiny territory and roughly one-third of the people on whose behalf Abbas would negotiate a state. Hamas has refused to drop its call for Israel's destruction, thus no peace could endure without the involvement of this heavyweight agent.
The process might also be stalled by Iran. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called the Annapolis meeting a failure, and said of Israel, "It is impossible that the Zionist regime will survive." He also criticized Syria, Iran's ally, for attending.
There is not likely to be progress over Syria's claim over the strategic Golan Heights, seized by Israel in 1967, or in border disputes between Lebanon and Israel.
Israelis did not seem to expect good results from the gathering either. In Jerusalem, more than 20,000 Israeli nationalists gathered at the Western Wall, a Jewish holy site, to pray for the conference to fail. This group strongly opposes any division of Israel. Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu also labeled the summit "a continuation of one-sided concessions."
Other factors affecting the peace process include the unfinished mission in Iraq, the Iran nuclear issue, the terrorist hotbeds in Afghanistan and Pakistan. All of these issues will require attention from U.S. President George W. Bush before his term ends in January 2009.
On Wednesday Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas said the Annapolis peace conference put prospects for a Palestinian state back "on track." And Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he believed the Israeli public would support "painful concessions for peace," if the Palestinians agreed to follow the U.S.-backed road map.
These are hopeful words, but history shows that more than hope will be needed to bring any real change in the Middle East.
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(Zhang Quanyi is an associate professor at the Zhejiang Wanli University in Ningbo, China, and a PhD candidate at Shanghai International Studies University, studying policy making and collective identity. He is currently a research fellow at the School of International Studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, Korea, under a grant by the Korea Foundation. He can be contacted at qyzhangupi@yahoo.com. ©Copyright Zhang Quanyi.)
