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Bhutto is a silver-spoon child of Pakistan, who was born in privilege and considers Pakistan a God-given fiefdom to her father and to her. Later she will pass on this mantle to her children. The author saw her as a 19-year-girl in Shimla during meetings between Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, after the 1971 military surrender of Pakistani forces in Bangladesh. She walked step-in-step with her father, with an army of reporters and very eligible bachelors in tow.
Her father's hanging by another hated military dictator in 1989 catapulted the very young Benazir Bhutto into prominence. Six years later she was the leader of her father's People's Party. In another four years, her party won the elections and she was sworn in as the democratically elected prime minister in 1988.
The whole Pakistani establishment, including the army, civil servants and elite Mohajirs, conspired against her. It was not long before she lost her job. Prime minister for less than two years, she had not many accomplishments to boast of. Re-elected in 1993, she remained prime minister for another three years, but was sacked again. Political power went over to another aspiring Punjabi leader named Nawaz Sharif.
Four important things happened in Bhutto's two truncated terms as prime minister. First, she created the Taliban to conquer Afghanistan. Second, she gave the go-ahead for insurgency in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Third, she brought the only port and the biggest city of Pakistan, Karachi, to its knees. She encouraged the local Sindhis to grab political power from the Mohajirs, who had aligned themselves with the Pathans from Afghanistan. The latter were drug barons and elite criminals who had made Karachi their home. Each of these communities had about one-third of the population base, hence could not grab political power without the support of the other. Fourth, she visited North Korea at the behest of China and swapped nuclear technology for missiles.
In her two decades-old political career, Bhutto has encouraged the Sindhis of Karachi to assert themselves. Mayhem followed this encouragement. Ten years of bloodshed ended three years after Bhutto was unseated. Also the leader of the Mohajir was banished to London, far from his political base.
In this period, Benazir also lost her two brothers -- one to the machinations of Pakistani intelligence in Paris and the other to the inter-community and inter-gang rivalry in Karachi.
Since her exile in 1999, she has portrayed herself as a moderate pro-Western enlightened democrat. This façade, which she has built for herself, has garnered her media attention and admiring handshakes from world leaders.
Initially the world leaders were not sure about Musharraf. But after 9/11, America needed a reliable ruler in Pakistan who would permit them a free hand in Afghanistan. Musharraf was their choice. This effort was a partial success. It was lower-level Pakistani military officers that frustrated U.S. efforts to capture the key conspirators of 9/11.
Al-Qaida and the Taliban were also unsure about Pakistani military support and stayed on the run for five years. The Pakistani people's anger at the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 turned to a political backlash against Musharraf. Many became al-Qaida and Taliban supporters. They hated the United States, although Washington was pumping US$2 billion in military and economic aid into Pakistan every year. That was the signal al-Qaida and the Taliban were looking for. They began setting up bases along the Afghan-Pakistan border in the tribal region.
Bhutto was overjoyed at these unpleasant developments for the military dictator, who had the United States breathing down his neck to do something about the re-invigorated Taliban and al-Qaida. Musharraf did not know what to do.
The Pakistani military has all along been trained to fight pitched battles with India on the eastern border. Guerilla warfare is not their specialty. Hence, fight after fight, they have been losing men and material. The Taliban, the movement of Pathans in the tribal areas, has succeeded for a century and a half in beating back the mighty British Army, the Soviets and in 1962-70 the Pakistanis, during clashes over demarcation of the Durrand line. The present fight is simply business as usual for them.
Thus Musharraf found himself in a fix, with the United States breathing down his neck on one hand, and on the other, an insurgency taking a heavy toll on army morale. Meanwhile, the two exiled prime ministers were having a field day criticizing him as a leader and challenging his intention to remain commander-in-chief of the army as well as president of the country. Even the religious parties, which supported Musharraf initially, were unwilling to support him in the dual job.
Musharraf was unable to reach an accommodation with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, because he is the man whom he ousted in a bloodless coup. Hence, he has picked Bhutto with whom to work out a political accommodation.
The deal that Musharraf and Bhutto have struck includes that Musharraf will be elected as president in normal indirect elections in which national and provincial legislatures vote. The legislatures will be selected in a rigged election to guarantee a favorable presidential vote. Later Musharraf will dump the uniform and appoint Bhutto as prime minister. This will keep the other political opponent, Nawaz Sharif, out of the picture. He does not like this arrangement and has tried to return to Pakistan, only to be ejected once again.
Bhutto is so eager to reclaim her God-given post of prime minister that she will accept any deal, even if it is with the devil. The United States has also been nudging her to accept Mushharrf as her boss and president. Those in Washington like the general so much they are prepared to forego all democratic principles of free elections and the freedom to vote, to keep him in power.
Musharraf is prepared to grant Bhutto a full pardon as long as he knows that the modified Pakistani Constitution grants the military an exclusive right to dump any policy or strategic change that is not to their liking. To perpetuate his influence in the military after he dumps his uniform, Musharraf has been making changes in the top echelons of the military and appointing persons friendly to his cause.
So the die has been cast. General Musharraf will drop his uniform after he is elected. Benazir Bhutto will be figurehead civilian prime minister, and the military will have the power to veto any move she makes toward supremacy. Meanwhile the United States will be happy that a civilian has been restored to the prime minister's job. This is a very poor portrayal of the democratic rights of the people.
This leaves out Nawaz Sharif, who technically is the elected civilian prime minister. He did not resign, but was expelled to Saudi Arabia under duress.
In fact, nobody will be happy with the Musharraf-Bhutto-army troika at the helm of power. Enlightened moderation will be hard to digest in an increasingly rights-conscious world. Religious parties, which have already gained major ground in Pakistan, will sabotage this troika in favor of Koranic rule.
The worst loser in this scenario will be the United States. Washington has spent US$10 billion to prop up Pakistan over the last six years. This money will end up being aid to the devil.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
