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Unfortunately, where the most important issue that impacts most negatively on the country is concerned, which is the ethnic conflict, none of these opposition parties has yet taken a forthright stand. The main partner in the opposition alliance, the United National Party, appears to believe that if it makes its position clear, it will be subjected to attack by the government and its nationalist allies, so it prefers to leave a vacuum that others can fill. UNP members have even said that civil society and non-governmental organizations should be in the front lines regarding educating the general public, while they remain in the background.
The problem is that civil society and NGO groups do not have the coverage that political parties have when it comes to reaching the masses of people through the media. While civil society groups can voice their opinions, it is the politicians who take decisions that are converted into actions and who get the coverage of the media. As a result of the lack of contribution by the opposition political parties to the public discussion on the ethnic conflict and its solution, the opportunity is left wide open for the government and its nationalist allies to dominate the public space on this issue.
The outcome of this discussion in the public sphere regarding the ethnic conflict and its solution is not surprising. It is inevitable that the thinking of the general population will be slanted toward the view that they find most powerfully presented in the mass media. A recent public opinion survey carried out by the Marga Institute in collaboration with the National Peace Council showed that as many as 84 percent of those polled agreed with the government's strategy of confronting the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam militarily and seeking to take back the territory controlled by the LTTE.
However, it is also possible that the high proportion of people who accept the government's current strategy do so only because they have been shown no alternative to the government plan, which almost all people consider to be very costly. It is no cause for surprise that more than 99 percent of those polled wanted the war to end as soon as possible and conditions of normalcy restored. The people are fully aware of the costs of the war, and the negative manner in which it impacts upon their well-being and the well-being of the country as a whole.
Furthermore, even though 84 percent were in favor of the government's military strategy against the LTTE, that same group and others, amounting to 89 percent, felt that a military solution would not bring peace and normalcy to the country as the LTTE would continue as a disruptive guerilla force. The problem is that most respondents -- 77 percent -- have little or no faith in the LTTE's willingness to give up its goal of an independent state of Tamil Eelam and enter into the democratic mainstream. In these circumstances the people see no other option than for the government to contain the LTTE militarily.
But if it is possible to change this perception, there will be public support once again for a peace process that has a negotiated political settlement as its objective. This conclusion is supported by the fact that 72 percent of the respondents believed that a realistic solution, and one that would be lasting and peaceful, can only come through a negotiated political solution into which the LTTE is incorporated.
The challenge for the opposition, and this includes the LTTE, is to find ways to educate and reassure the people that a negotiated political solution that keeps the country united is possible in Sri Lanka, as it has been possible elsewhere in the world.
Specifically, the opposition political parties need to educate the people about the peace processes in other parts of the world, such as in Indonesia's Aceh, India's Nagaland and Assam, Bangladesh's Chittagong and Britain's Northern Ireland. The common feature in all these peace processes is that there were repeatedly negotiated ceasefires that collapsed, but finally there was one that held. Another common feature is that the governments had to deal with the main rebel group, and give up trying to fashion agreements with the others.
The opposition needs to take this message -- that peace is possible through peaceful means -- to the masses of people, to turn them away from reliance on the present reality of war and government spokespersons who speak of the necessity of more war for the next two to three years. What opposition politicians say is taken seriously because there is the real possibility that one day they will be in a position of power and able to convert their words into deeds.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
