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The All Party Representatives Committee held 42 meetings over a period of 14 months, which brought together the representatives from a wide range of political parties. The Chairman of the APRC, Professor Tissa Vitarana, was optimistic that a viable political package would emerge at the end. But now the process stands suspended.
The point of disagreement has been fundamental to the political solution. It is the old question whether Sri Lanka should be governed from the center or be a more devolved polity with power centers in the regions also. The code words for these two positions continue to be "unitary" versus "federal status." These two positions contain in them the fears and aspirations of the Sinhalese and Tamil communities and of their political representatives.
The political leadership is as polarized on this question as is the general population. Those political leaders who have had the courage and foresight to take up positions at variance with the general population have paid heavily at the next elections.
To the Sinhalese community, on the one hand, the unitary state is seen as the best guarantor of the geographical and political unity of the country, and also as ensuring continued Sinhalese ethnic majority rule. The fear is that the boundaries of the federal units could become the borders of an independent Tamil country, if the ethnic conflict continues with no solution and the United Nations decides to step in.
To the Tamils, on the other hand, the unitary state represents continued domination by the Sinhalese ethnic majority and the threat that whatever powers are devolved can be arbitrarily taken back. Federalism holds out the prospect of Tamil domination of the north and east.
To the uninvolved observer, the rational compromise might be to use neither of these terminologies and instead find a political solution that can best meet the fears and aspirations of the different ethnic communities that live and coexist in the country. There are unitary states which have devolved enormous powers to their regions, such as the United Kingdom in relation to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and which the people of the regions trust will not be arbitrarily withdrawn. There are federal states such as Malaysia that keep a tight control of the economic and political life of the country, despite having regional governments.
A reasonable approach would seek to create a Sri Lankan model of devolution without tying it to either the unitary or federal labels. Unfortunately, the government headed by President Mahinda Rajapaksa is increasingly looking as if it is trapped in a situation of war.
Without the support of the pro-war parties, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (People's Liberation Front) and Jathika Hela Urumaya, the government's continuance in power is doubtful. The government's vulnerable position in Parliament makes it desperate to keep the pro-war Sinhalese nationalist parties on its side. As can be expected, the JVP and JHU's price for their continued support is that there be no accommodation or compromise with the forces of Tamil nationalism. Both of these parties have a passionate commitment to the unitary state, which enables Sinhalese domination of the polity, and which they see as the best guarantor of the country's unity.
But change is in the offing. The present political instability, and debilitation of the national economy as a result of the war and economic mismanagement coupled with high levels of corruption, will sooner or later lead to fresh general elections. This can lead to a change of government and a new configuration of power, in which the Sinhalese nationalist block to a reasonable political solution is removed. The longer the war drags on, the worse the economy will do, with consequent erosion of the people's confidence in the government's ability to meet their own needs.
If the political situation changes so that the president is freed from the need to depend on these pro-war and anti-federal parties, he is likely to give his blessing to a political solution that goes at least part of the way toward meeting Tamil aspirations. President Rajapaksa's realization that it is necessary to find a political solution to the ethnic conflict is manifest in his appointment of the liberal professor Vitarana to chair the All Party Representatives Committee. It is also manifest in his internal defense of Vitarana from attacks by the JVP and JHU. So there is reason not to lose hope.
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(Dr. Jehan Perera is executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an independent advocacy organization. He studied economics at Harvard College and holds a doctorate in law from Harvard Law School. ©Copyright Jehan Perera.)
