Font size: 
Within the next seven years, India is expected to double its economic size to US$2 trillion, which will make it a highly respected power in the region. In another twenty years, it might become either the second or the third most powerful nation in the world. However, any emerging rival to India will not sit well with China and will lend Pakistan the vital political, military, and economic support in the absence of the U.S. who would have withdrawn all aid after pulling out from Afghanistan.
Afghans, after the American withdrawal will demand unity with their brethren in the federally administered tribal areas (FATA) of Pakistan. They may start another fight to achieve this unity. The Buloch from Bulochistan will follow this lead and renew their fight for independence. The success of both these movements will depend on the amount of resources Pakistan is able to divert from its eastern frontier with India and apply to these new insurgencies. In short, valuable resources will only go wasted.
As Pakistanis watch India's growth as an economic powerhouse, they will also demand the same from their own government, though this would be possible only if peaceful conditions exist. In such a scenario, the reinstalled civilian government will be in a quandary to either reach a compromise with the insurgents or keep fighting a losing battle, though compromise might be a better option.
Pakistan is a progressive agrarian society and has an excellent landmass and river irrigation system. Thirty feet of topsoil in all of Pakistani Punjab with plenty of water to irrigate, makes it a highly productive area. Agriculture and agro based industries have all the makings of a prosperous nation. Water is the key to this progress. Unfortunately, this water flows from India into Pakistan. Three rivers including the Indus provide about 140 million acre-feet of water to Pakistan where two-thirds of it is consumed internally for agriculture and domestic use and the remaining 40 million acre-feet flows into the sea from the Indus delta.
About 85% of this water originates in the Western Himalayas, in India and Tibet and the rest comes in small distributaries from Afghanistan and Kashmir. The Chenab River that flows through the heart of this fertile Pakistani Punjab area is the key to the prosperity of the region. Here, a hundred years ago, the world's largest irrigation system was built. Retired Indian civil servants from the days of the British rule settled there and created much of the food surplus in the area. They also began exporting grain to the rest of the Indian sub-continent during the early twentieth century.
The Indus Water Treaty of 1961, between India & Pakistan carefully distributed the river water between the two warring neighbors. While India was allocated the eastern part of the three rivers where it has built big dams to harness the water for irrigation and power generation, Pakistan got the controls over the the western part. Though the past irrigation infrastructures gave Pakistan an advantage, they have been slow in building dams and storage systems and missed the boat to turn it into a region of greater prosperity.
This water usage between India & Pakistan has never been peaceful. Historically, Pakistan has eyed Indian intentions of building dams to generate electricity with much suspicion. Pointless scrutiny has held up two major power projects (Baglihar & Wullar) in Indian controlled Kashmir for decades. Major objections to the Baglihar dam were referred to the World Bank, who had sponsored the Indus Water Treaty. The results disappointed Pakistan when India's right to build the dam to harness waterpower was recognized. This decision also laid to rest any possible objections on the other project - Wullar. The Bank's neutral observer asked India to reduce the height of the dam to give Pakistan some elbowroom to maneuver the diplomatic mess. The point is that these water-sharing issues are not going to fade off easily. The Pakistanis have been thoroughly dissatisfied with the Baglihar decision and any excuse would give them the impetus to start another brawl.
Pakistan's poor water management like slow dam constructions, lack of storage capacity, and water rights wrangling means more water shortages looming on their horizons. These have raised concerns from many quarters including noted Pakistani columnist - Shahid Javed Burki, who has argued that Pakistan needs a well thought out water strategy, which addresses water storage, better utilization strategies, and water accounting for deciding agricultural production patterns. He points that cultivating a pound of tomatoes require 13 litres of water versus 11,000 for a pair of jeans. Hence, the question whether Pakistan should cultivate cotton or switch to another crop is crucial. Burki has a critical point that needs careful examination.
Water is a precious resource to an agrarian society. Misdirected policies can have a strong and passionate response from people wanting to protect it. These actions are sufficient to inflame the whole population. The Kashmir issue never raised passions as high as the water issue would. Acute water shortages will result due to Pakistan's internal erroneous water management policies and blaming India will set the neighbors on a collision course. Though, this is unlikely to happen in the next 15 to 20 years, serious water shortage is likely to develop around the year 2030. As soon as this shortage affects agriculture, a major conflict in the sub-continent will begin.
For India there are few choices as it has to adhere to the Indus Water Treaty whereby no water can be taken out of the Pakistani designated rivers except as permitted by the Treaty. A war scenario unfolding within twenty years from now is not hard to imagine. It will begin with less water in the river Chenab due to less rainfall or snow in the upper reaches of the Himalayas, because of uncertain weather patterns. Fickle minded politicians will paint India the villain and incite the masses to grab water from India's three rivers. This is sufficient to inflame the population. Add to this, the persistent problem of Kashmir and the perceived mistreatment of Muslims in India and one is left with an explosive mix ready to burst. The army that had sat out for two decades now gets its opportunity to wage war and prepares for hostilities.
The outcome of this conflict is unpredictable as much as a nuclear conflagration is possible. Hence, it is important to send the Pakistani army back to its barracks and tone down its military influence. While Pakistan needs speedy help with its water management system, India needs to prevent any oversight in dam building activities in Kashmir. Perhaps, both must also pray to the weather Gods for adequate rains to keep the health of their rivers and its economies intact. Maybe, good behavior might just do the trick.
--
(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
