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Taiwan still calls itself the Republic of China and considers itself a sovereign nation, while mainland China holds the view that the Republic of China ceased to exist in 1949, and Taiwan is part of China. Taiwan has toyed with the idea of changing its official name and of changing its constitution -- China has resolved that any such move, or a declaration of independence, would call for military action, and warned foreign countries not to interfere with this "internal affair."
In 2000, Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates independence for the island, won the national election. The party successively formulated a referendum law -- giving people the right to express their views on policies, potentially including relations with China -- announced that the Guidelines for National Unification, which outlined a course for reunification with the mainland, would cease to apply, and began setting up new institutions to move Taiwan toward independence.
China responded by strengthening preparations for a military attack on Taiwan. The number of guided missiles Beijing has pointed at Taiwan has increased to more than 1,000. China also passed an Anti-Secession Law, consolidating the legal and political basis for a military attack on Taiwan.
Despite these aggressive moves on both sides, the fact is that neither side wants war. A war would wipe out more than 50 years of economic achievement in Taiwan. Also, the democracy enjoyed by 23 million Taiwanese would be put in jeopardy. On the other side, mainland China's fast-growing economy would be severely affected by a war, which would cripple the economic development of its 1.3 billion people.
In order to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, both sides must exercise self-restraint, and seek communication and conciliation. The United States and Japan also have a stake in this situation. The quickest way for the United States to intervene in the event of war would be to send an aircraft carrier from Japan. Presumably, China would not go to war with the United States - although Beijing has repeatedly insisted that it would use force rather than see Taiwan "secede," and Washington's Taiwan Relations Act requires it to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China.
From one point of view, China and Taiwan are two nations confronting each other across the Taiwan Strait. From the other viewpoint -- which, at China's insistence, has been accepted by the majority of countries in the world -- there is only one China, and Taiwan is a mere rebel province (though this concept is a distortion of historical fact).
The mutual exclusivity of these two views makes it appear that the two parties are still engaged in an ongoing war. As a matter of fact, there has been no war for many years. Instead, there have been close economic, cultural and social exchanges between the two sides.
If you discuss this issue with Chinese living in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau or mainland China, very often the metaphor of the family is raised. Chinese everywhere think of themselves as "sons of the dragon," members of a single family. Applying this metaphor, Beijing stands in the position of the traditional, authoritarian father, while Taiwan (and indeed, Hong Kong and Macau as well) stand in the position of children, often seen as naughty and disrespectful.
Vice President Annette Lu of Taiwan once used the analogy of husband and wife to describe the relationship between the two sides. She said, "If Taiwan (the wife) is not willing to marry, China (the husband) cannot force the marriage." Only when Taiwan is willing and ready can the two parties be united.
Perhaps a more useful analogy would be to view the two parties as siblings: China as the powerful and wealthy older brother, Taiwan as the humble younger brother, without inheritance, who has to struggle on his own. With the two on the verge of a fight, the intervention of other brothers and sisters is needed -- Japan and the United States, ideally under the direction of the parents.
This is where the United Nations should come in, in the parental position, with the interests of both sides at heart. Unfortunately, the United Nations at present reflects the interests only of China's Communist Party, and therefore cannot resolve the dispute. Despite Taiwan's annual attempts since 1993 to join the United Nations, under the name Republic of China, it has repeatedly been blocked by China. Earlier this month a ruling party legislator proposed a referendum as to whether or not Taiwan should apply to join the United Nations using Taiwan as its official name. This would beyond a doubt also be blocked by China.
In this situation, the Chinese people remain locked in a dysfunctional family -- interdependent but hostile, non-violent but with the threat of violence ever-present. The international community may well be asking: When will these feisty brothers ever grow up?
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(Dr. Chang Chuan-fong is Asia Director of the International Educational Foundation, based in Macau, China.)
