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With the finalization of the Kaladan-Sittwe project, Myanmar has balanced the odds in India's favor. This is a river transportation project on the River Kaladan, which flows in and out of Mizoram province in India's northeast and is navigable all the way to the sea. It enters the Bay of Bengal near the port of Sittwe (formerly Akyab). This port will be developed by India into a major commercial port to distribute Mizoram's bamboo crops and Myanmar's forest wealth. It will also become a major distribution center for oil and gas supplies to India and China.
For India it is a masterstroke of diplomacy, while the Chinese could only look on. It took India five years of hard diplomacy to gain the right to undertake this project. In security, diplomatic and political terms this development is on the same scale as China building the port of Gwadar in Pakistan at the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz.
With Gwadar under its influence, China could keep an eye on the movement of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf. Now with Sittwe under Indian influence, India can keep an eye on the movement of oil and gas to China from Myanmar. In was China's plan to use the port of Sittwe and a pipeline to China to transport oil from the Persian Gulf, avoiding the circuitous sea route via Singapore. China will not change its plans, but the Indian presence at the port will be loathsome to them.
Myanmar's past has been checkered since its independence from the British. A deeply religious Buddhist country, it had been alternating between democracy and military dictatorship. The last round was the takeover by the military junta headed by Senior General Than Shwe about 15 years ago. At the behest of the West, the British-educated Myanmar-born Aung San Suu Kyi has been fighting for the restoration of democracy. She has not succeeded, although she has wide support.
The West has placed tough sanctions on military hardware and other industrial raw material exports to Myanmar, only to find that China has stepped in to fill the void. The efforts of Suu Kyi and the West to restore democracy have been frustrated, and she has spent the last 10 years under house arrest.
The River Kaladan is a wide river with year-round water flow. It originates in the upper reaches of Myanmar, enters Mizoram and then back into Myanmar to continue its passage south to the Bay of Bengal. Navigation with 500-ton river crafts is possible all the way to Mizoram, making the Indian province a net beneficiary. Its bamboo, known as "green gold," can now easily be transported by river to the Bay of Bengal and then onwards to India. Previously, it had to take a circuitous road route via Assam and through the Siliguri Corridor to India. Transportation costs will be cut in half with this river project.
Mizoram is the hilly easternmost province of India. Its inhabitants, the Mizos, fought a 40-year jungle insurgency against Indian troops, but have now settled down in favor of democracy. Support from Pakistan had fueled the insurgency, which began to wane when economic progress was promised and its leadership was killed in various firefights. The present leader and chief minister of Mizoram is Pu Zoramthanga, formerly the right-hand man of insurgency leader Laldenga. Realizing the benefits of peace, he dumped the insurgency and made peace and progress the motto of the state. He has been instrumental in pushing the Kaladan-Sittwe project forward.
Four-fifths of Mizoram is covered with bamboo, a virtuous building material highly valued for constructing houses, making strong scaffolding structures, and other uses. Circuitous land routes have made it difficult to transport to India, so the full potential of the state's bamboo crop has not been realized. Three years from now when this project is completed, prosperity will strike this landlocked state.
It will cost about US$135 million to develop the river transport and infrastructure at the port. When Myanmar sees the full potential of this project, it may begin utilizing the river for other navigational purposes. Hence it is a win-win situation for both India and Myanmar. Further development of the Sittwe port into a gas and oil transshipment terminal may add to its importance. More funds will be required to develop Sittwe to its full potential, but India will likely be willing to put up the additional money to avoid a Chinese presence there.
China already has a foothold in Myanmar, having built a huge presence to exploit oil and gas reserves. On the Western Rakhine coast China has a lease to explore oil and gas in an area of 10,000 square kilometers. The area has a huge potential for gas. China has approached Myanmar to export as much 600 million cubic feet of gas per day, via a pipeline following the Irrawaddy River corridor. This pipeline will be extended to carry as much as 1 billion cubic feet a day.
The pipeline to carry the oil will be laid parallel to the river and will have the capacity to pump 20 million metric tons a year. The two pipelines will be about 2,000 kilometers long and travel over a densely forested area with great impact to the environment. The Chinese do not care much about Myanmar's environment. They need gas and will have it at all costs.
With India pre-empting China on the Sittwe port development, the entire rosy picture that the Chinese had built for themselves has lost its shine. This is the first project on which India has pre-empted China.
This great game between India and China will continue for a while, however, and India must remain alert to China's future moves. China has a lot more money at its disposal than India, and will be looking to pre-empt India on other deals.
Alternatively, India could emphasize to Myanmar's junta that exclusive dependence on China's men, material and exports will make them a Chinese-ruled state like Tibet. Hence it is better for them to diversify their dealings and exports. Geographically, India is much closer to them than China and will very willingly pick up all the gas Myanmar has to offer.
A pipeline from Myanmar to India faces the major hurdle of crossing Bangladesh, however, which that country will never allow. Hence it would have to take a circuitous route via Assam and the Siliguri Corridor. The alternative would be a submergible sea pipeline off the coast of Bangladesh away from Bangladesh's territorial waters. This is feasible, as the distance is not very great, and at places it could hop from island to island outside Bangladesh's territorial waters.
In summary, India can enjoy this good news from the East. Myanmar has finally balanced its relationship with India.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
