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There are three things which could hold back this process, however: energy resources, lack of technology or climatic catastrophe. Abundance of energy is the key to the progress of both India and China. Without adequate clean energy, their economic prosperity will come crashing down like a house of cards.
Energy in Asia over the past 60 years has come from hydroelectricity, coal, oil and natural gas. New methods of harnessing renewable energy such as wind power, solar energy and bio-fuels have not made inroads into Asia. These are still experimental technologies, and their large-scale use is either unlikely or far away. But the concept of exploiting renewable energy sources is a good one. Every kilowatt of energy generated by renewable sources goes into reducing greenhouse gases that are detrimental to the environment.
Coal is by far the most abundantly used fossil fuel to generate power and supply other forms of energy. It is also the dirtiest source of energy. China has the world's second largest reserves of coal, but it is low grade with high sulfur content. Its usage generates two main pollutants: carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide (and small quantities of nitrogen oxide as well). The former creates greenhouses gases, the major cause of global warming. The latter produces acidity, which washes down on unsuspecting crops, lakes and forests, killing them over a period of time.
China produces about 80 percent of its power using coal and dumps about 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the environment. This is second only to the United States, which dumps twice as much. India produces about 70 percent of its energy from coal and is not as great a polluter as China and the United States. It dumps about 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the environment.
The use of oil to generate power and supply other forms of energy has expanded twenty fold since World War II. It was always known that the supply of oil was not inexhaustible, yet mankind continues to pump oil from the ground. Depleting oil reserves are now prompting the search for other ways of generating energy. India and China, with low oil supplies and reserves, are acutely dependent on imports and thus eager to explore other energy sources. Oil is also used as a lubricant, petrochemical feedstock, transportation fuel and for other industrial purposes that take precedence over generating power.
Natural gas, another fossil fuel, is second only to oil as an energy source in the United States. Reserves in the Middle East, United States, Russia and Central Asia have been exploited over the last half century. Natural gas produces greenhouse gases, but a bit less compared to oil and its products. India and China have minor reserves of this commodity and wish to procure it wherever it is available. A rough estimate is that current known reserves in the world will last 100 years if exploited at the current level. Factoring in the current growth of the Indian and Chinese economies, reserves may last only 60 years.
The United States is pushing the use of bio-fuels, seeking to have hydrogen and battery-operated cars replace oil as fuel in the automotive sector. The usefulness of bio-fuels and hydrogen is more hype than truth, however. The bio-fuel production cycle from farm to end user requires about 0.75 gallons of imported oil for every gallon of bio-fuel produced. This makes it still dependent upon depleting oil reserves. The bio-fuel hype will die as soon as the economics behind it are fully known.
Hydrogen as a fuel is very efficient and produces no greenhouse gases. But it requires a huge amount of power to electrolyze water into hydrogen molecules. Alternatively natural gas can be reformed into hydrogen and carbon dioxide. This is an easier process but it depletes the natural gas reserves and also produces unwanted carbon dioxide. India and China will stay away from these experimental technologies, as they have no cheap gas available and there is no environmental advantage.
Battery-operated cars may have a better future, but no technological breakthroughs have been achieved to extend battery life and propel cars at high speeds on highways. To overcome this drawback, petrol and batteries are used together, which increases costs.
All of these problems associated with various energy options leave only one alternative, which has been maligned but could ultimately come to the rescue -- atomic power. Critics have been holding up its development because of one major accident at Chernobyl in Russia in 1987. Another accident at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979 was prevented due to luck and better safety features at the plant.
This mode of energy production has its dangers, but given the choices between depleting energy reserves and other experimental technologies it may prove to be the best option. Atomic power is abundant and could support other technologies. It could economically electrolyze water to generate hydrogen for use in cars, for example.
India and China have only a few energy choices at this moment in history. China is short on energy reserves except for coal. The same is true of India. Using coal to fulfill their energy requirements is a bad idea, as it is likely to lead to a worldwide environmental catastrophe sooner or later. Hence atomic energy is a much preferred choice for India and China to support their future growth.
In fact, India has already made its choices. It has opted for nuclear power to be supplemented with natural gas and to a lesser extent with coal. A mix of these three should adequately address India's energy requirements for the next fifty years and beyond. Once commercial cold fusion technology becomes available, the safety aspect of nuclear power generation will be adequately addressed. Even today, nuclear power is fairly safe. Minor leaks aside, nuclear power plants generally operate safely.
Now it is China's turn to make its choices. It cannot keep burning low-grade coal, which is environmentally unsafe. India has compromised with the United States to import U.S. technology to build nuclear power plants. China has to do the same. Less compromise will be required of China, as it is already a recognized nuclear state. Hence, a few concessions on the part of the Chinese and a few safeguards on fissile materials will allow them the free flow of nuclear technology.
It is important that they compromise now; thirty years from now will be too late. By then China's agricultural land, forests and lakes will be a wasteland due to acid rain. A nuclear energy choice by China would reduce its greenhouse gases and help avert a worldwide environmental catastrophe.
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(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)
